Conditional Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Sovereign risk and macroeconomic stability in the euro area
Sovereign risk premia have risen sharply in several European countries, contributed to increased credit spreads in the private sector. If monetary policy cannot offset these credit spreads because it is constrained by the zero lower bound, sovereign risk threatens macroeconomic stability: private-sector beliefs of a weakening economy may become self-fulfilling. In this paper, we put forward a t...
متن کاملSpillover in Euro Area Sovereign Bond Markets *
This paper applies the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) spillover methodology to euro area sovereign bond markets. Our analysis identifies different phases of interaction in those markets in recent years. We find a substantial increase in spillover between euro area sovereign bond markets coinciding with the bailout of Bear Stearns in March 2008. The phase of the euro area crisis from the first ...
متن کاملSaving Imbalances and the Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis
For several years prior to 2010, countries in the euro area periphery engaged in heavy borrowing from foreign private investors, allowing domestic spending to outpace incomes. Now these countries face debt crises refl ecting a loss of investor confi dence in the sustainability of their fi nances. The result has been an abrupt halt in private foreign lending to these economies. This study explai...
متن کاملSovereign Credit Risk with Endogenous Default
This paper provides a model of sovereign default risk pricing, in which a sovereign country endogenously determines the timing of default on its external debt. The theoretical relationships between credit risk and the macro-variables considered in the model are consistent with the empirical literature. The model also helps to explain the variation across time in Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI...
متن کاملPredicting Sovereign Default
With the financial crises ongoing in Greece and Venezuela, sovereign debt crises have become more and more prominent in the public eye. Thus, it has become important to be able to predict when nations will enter such debt crises. We collected publicly available data in order to train models to predict, given a nation’s economic status in one year, whether they would be in a debt crisis the next...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2013
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2286654